Why gold investors are still bullish in 2026
What's the story
Despite a record-breaking rally in 2025, few investors expect gold to replicate that success in 2026. However, many leading money managers remain optimistic about further gains. They believe the same factors that drove bullion to unprecedented heights are still at play. In 2025, gold prices skyrocketed by an astonishing 65%, marking its best performance in nearly five decades.
Market sentiment
Expert opinions on gold's future performance
Ian Samson, a portfolio manager at Fidelity International, still expects gold to rally in 2026. He believes the drivers of its strong run are still intact. Despite trimming his position during a hectic October, he has since added back due to central bank buying, declining interest rates and high fiscal deficits supporting the precious metal's value.
External factors
Geopolitical tensions and currency confidence impact gold prices
Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley, said waning confidence in major developed-market currencies due to attacks on central bank independence, and rising sovereign debts is a key pillar of support for bullion. He recommends investing 20% of one's portfolio into real assets like gold as an inflation hedge. Wilson believes that while the debasement story has gone mainstream, it isn't fully priced yet due to lack of fiscal discipline globally.
Institutional interest
Pension and insurance funds show increasing interest in gold
Darwei Kung, the head of commodities at DWS Group, said his firm is holding a slightly bigger-than-usual allocation to gold-related investments. He expects this stance will continue this year. Massimiliano Castelli from UBS Asset Management revealed that pension and insurance funds showed increasing interest in gold through 2025. Some even took positions of around 5% of their strategic asset allocation, drawn by strong returns and gold's potential to hedge against downside risks elsewhere in their portfolio.
Market trends
Historical caution and future predictions for gold
Gold exchange-traded funds account for just 0.17% of private US financial portfolios, as per a December Goldman Sachs analysis. The bank estimates that every buying bout that increases gold's share by 0.01% would lift the prices by about 1.4%. Central bank buying is expected to remain a major driver of further price gains, with Goldman Sachs expecting purchases of about 80 tons/month in 2026.