Goldman Sachs now expects US interest rate hike in December

Business Oct 01, 2026

Goldman Sachs now thinks the next US interest rate hike will happen in December instead of October.

Why? August inflation numbers came in lower than expected, 3.4% instead of the predicted 3.7%, making an October rate bump less likely.

CME FedWatch: October hike odds 38%

With inflation cooling off, the Federal Reserve is taking a wait-and-see approach under its new chief, Kevin Warsh.

The odds of an October hike have dropped from 51% to 38%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

All eyes are now on Friday's jobs report, which could shape what the Fed does next.