AI won't cause job apocalypse, but disruption expected: Goldman Sachs
What's the story
A recent report by Goldman Sachs has downplayed fears of an impending "AI job apocalypse," despite the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology. The study predicts that while AI will cause some disruption in labor markets over the next decade, it is also likely to create new job opportunities in the long run. The report features insights from economists and AI experts who broadly agree on this view.
Displacement forecast
Temporary labor market headwinds predicted
Goldman Sachs's Senior Global Economist Joseph Briggs has predicted that more than 9% of the labor force in the US, or some 15 million workers, could be displaced during a decade-long AI transition. However, he believes this disruption will be temporary. "Despite our expectation that AI-related job losses will lead to a meaningful amount of labor displacement, we continue to expect that labor market headwinds will be temporary," Briggs said.
Job market
Net negative impact in near term, says Nobel laureate
MIT's Daron Acemoglu, a Nobel laureate in Economics, expects a modest net negative impact of AI on employment over the next five years. He cautions that the long-term outcome will depend on whether companies use AI to augment workers or replace them. "AI is more likely to replace than augment jobs in the near term... So, I expect a net negative impact on the number of jobs in the coming years," Acemoglu said.
Market impact
AI's impact may not be immediate
Neil Thompson, Director of the FutureTech research project at MIT's Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, said that AI's technical capability alone does not guarantee widespread job losses. He emphasized that reliability, access to data, costs, and practical deployment are major constraints on adoption. Thompson described the likely impact of AI as "a rising tide" rather than "a crashing wave," giving businesses and workers time to adapt.
Job creation
Younger workers at risk of displacement
Goldman Sachs economist Elsie Peng observed that AI is both replacing workers in some jobs and boosting productivity in others. She said, "In practice, we find that AI augmentation has created jobs, but not enough to fully offset the job losses from AI substitution." The report also notes that younger and less-experienced workers could face greater challenges in white-collar jobs exposed to AI technology.