IEA expects global oil demand to fall 2.6mbd in 2026
Business
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil demand to fall by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026. Diesel is a big reason, making up one-quarter of this decline.
The IEA points to disruptions like the Iran war, which have made fuel pricier and harder to get, hitting economies worldwide.
By late 2026, we will see about 2.5 million fewer barrels used each day compared to last year.
Oil supply down 5.8mbd in 2026
Even though demand is dropping, things are not steady on the supply side either.
After a bump in output from the Gulf region in September 2026, supply is expected to decline by an average of 5.8 million barrels per day in 2026, with the recovery remaining fragile.
There is some hope for a rebound in 2027 with a 7.7 million-barrel uptick.