Why India may miss $1 trillion export target in FY26
What's the story
India is likely to miss its ambitious $1 trillion export target for the fiscal year 2025-26, according to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). The report cites global headwinds, weak demand, and rising protectionism as major factors impacting merchandise shipments. GTRI Founder Ajay Shrivastava told ANI that there is a lack of momentum needed to achieve this target, especially in goods exports.
Export outlook
India's export performance and future projections
India's total goods and services exports were about $825 billion last year. This year, the growth is expected to be flat in goods exports but positive in services exports. "This year, because there will be flat growth, almost no growth in goods exports," Shrivastava said. He estimated that India's total exports for FY26 will be around $850 billion—$150 billion short of the $1 trillion target.
Agreement impact
Trade agreements and export growth
Shrivastava said a sharp increase in exports is unlikely unless India signs major trade agreements with key partners. He believes this could happen next year when India finalizes its trade deal with the US and EU. Despite the overall export growth being subdued, Shrivastava noted early signs of geographic diversification in India's trade data. Exports to the US have fallen sharply in recent months but shipments to other markets have increased.
Market expansion
Diversification and export basket
Between May and November, India's exports to the US fell by 20.7%. However, during this period, its exports to the rest of the world increased by 5.5%. Shrivastava stressed that merely expanding into new markets won't be enough unless India also diversifies what it sells abroad. He said "our export basket needs inclusion of more medium to high-tech products."
Trade alliances
India's stance on BRICS and WTO
On BRICS, Shrivastava said it's not an entity like Europe or ASEAN but a loose compilation of countries largely driven by China. He urged India to take a more assertive stance at the World Trade Organization (WTO), arguing that it has not delivered meaningful outcomes for decades. "Almost nothing has happened in the past 25 years in the WTO except a trade facilitation agreement," he said.
Agricultural protection
India urged to safeguard agricultural interests
Shrivastava also advised India to protect its agricultural interests and work with like-minded countries. He suggested that "India should initiate coalition-building efforts with like-minded countries like South Africa or Brazil to push for the core trade agenda." Despite the export slowdown, he remained optimistic about domestic growth, saying "the domestic economy is working fine."