India's crude import bill jumps 46% to $91 billion
What's the story
India's crude oil import bill has witnessed a massive jump of 46.3% to $90.6 billion in the April-September period, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). The spike is mainly due to high global prices, despite the fact that volumes have remained more or less unchanged when compared with last year. On October 21, Brent crude was trading at around $110 per barrel amid supply concerns and geopolitical tensions in West Asia.
Import stability
Stable import volumes amid rising costs
Despite the surge in the import bill, India's crude oil import volumes have remained largely stable.
The country imported 122.7 million tons of oil between April and September, a marginal increase from 121.8 million tons during the same period last year.
In September alone, the import bill jumped by 46.6% to $15.4 billion while volumes increased by 6.8% to reach 21.7 million tons, according to PPAC data.
Market reaction
Geopolitical tensions push up crude prices
The global market is still factoring in the possibility of widespread crude supply losses from West Asia, owing to several escalating factors.
These include renewed hostilities between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz as well as a new wave of attacks by Houthi rebels on Saudi energy infrastructure.
Samer Hasn, a senior market analyst at XS.com, explained that these developments have pushed crude prices back up after a temporary decline amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Economic impact
Rising oil prices could hurt Indian economy
India, the world's third-largest crude importer, relies on imports for over 85% of its needs. The country imports about 1.8-2 billion barrels of crude oil every year.
A $1-per-barrel increase in price adds up to $2 billion a year to India's import bill.
Analysts warn that persistently high landed prices could inflate the import bill, widen the current account deficit, and weigh on the broader economy.
Price forecast
Forecasts indicate continued high prices for crude oil
S&P Global Energy forecasts crude prices to remain in the $80-100 range until 2027, with Brent averaging around $90 or more for the rest of 2026 and at $86 next year, which is $5 higher than its previous outlook.
Paolo Broccardo, CEO at BankPro warned that any "further escalation or incidents in the region could push oil prices higher," adding "against this backdrop, the risk of higher volatility remains present in the sessions ahead."