India's wholesale inflation hits 25-month low of -0.58% in July
What's the story
India's wholesale inflation rate has eased month-over-month, falling to -0.58% in July from -0.13% in June. The decline is part of a larger disinflationary trend, aided by a strong spring harvest despite uneven monsoons. The data was released by the government on Thursday and is based on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI).
Retail relief
Retail inflation falls to 8-year low
Along with wholesale inflation, retail inflation has also cooled down significantly. It fell to an eight-year low of 1.55% in July, according to the data released earlier this week. This is the first time in over six years that retail inflation has fallen below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 2-6% tolerance band and is the lowest year-on-year rate since June 2017.
Future projections
RBI revises inflation forecast for FY26
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has projected that inflation will rise in the last quarter of FY26 due to volatile food prices, especially vegetables. Despite easing geopolitical uncertainties, incoming tariffs continue to weigh on global trade. For the entire fiscal year FY26, the RBI has revised its headline inflation projection downward to 3.1% from June's estimate of 3.7%.