India's economic survey flags possible 2008-style global crisis in 2026
India's latest Economic Survey, presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, warns of a lower-probability systemic shock in 2026 (10-20% probability) whose macroeconomic consequences could be as severe as—or worse than—the 2008 global financial crisis.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team outline three possible scenarios—ranging from ongoing instability to a full-blown shock—driven by global tensions, trade issues, and risky AI investments.
Why should you care?
Even with these storm clouds, India's economy is holding up strong: Projected real GDP growth is 6.8%-7.2% in FY27 thanks to solid domestic demand and big infrastructure pushes.
The banking sector is resilient too, helping buffer against global shocks.
But the report says we can't ignore rising risks—like volatile gold prices and complex trade talks with the US—that could affect growth, capital flows, the rupee, exports and financial markets if things go south globally.