Will US-Venezuela conflict impact trade with India? Expert weighs in
What's the story
The recent US-Venezuela conflict will have a negligible impact on India's trade with the South American nation, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). This is mainly due to existing sanctions and low trade volumes between India and Venezuela. GTRI's founder Ajay Srivastava said that India's trade with Venezuela has collapsed under sanctions, with crude imports down 81.3% in FY2025.
Trade decline
India's trade with Venezuela has drastically declined
Srivastava emphasized that the Venezuelan disturbance is unlikely to have any material economic/energy impact on India. He noted that while India was a major importer of Venezuelan crude in the 2000s and 2010s, bilateral engagement has sharply declined since 2019 due to US sanctions. These restrictions forced India to reduce oil imports and commercial activities in order to avoid secondary sanctions.
Import reduction
Imports from Venezuela have decreased
In FY2025, India's total imports from Venezuela stood at just $364.5 million, with crude oil accounting for $255.3 million. This marks an 81.3% decline from the $1.4 billion in crude imports recorded in FY2024. India's exports to Venezuela were also modest, amounting to $95.3 million, with pharmaceuticals leading the exports at a value of $41.4 million.
Impact assessment
Current developments in Venezuela unlikely to impact India
Srivastava concluded that given the low trade volumes, existing sanctions constraints, and geographical distance, the current developments in Venezuela are unlikely to have any meaningful impact on India's economy/energy security. He further highlighted that despite holding about 18% of the world's oil reserves (more than Saudi Arabia's 16%, Russia's 5-6%, or America's 4%), Venezuela's influence on India's trade remains minimal due to these factors.