Oil prices surge 13% to 14-month high amid US-Iran war
What's the story
Oil prices have surged by 13% to their highest levels in 14 months, following an escalation of attacks by US-Israel on Iran. The conflict has damaged tankers and disrupted shipments from the key oil-producing region. Brent crude futures jumped to $82.37 per barrel, the highest since January 2025, after US and Israeli strikes on Iran killed its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Saturday.
Price increase
US WTI crude also sees major price hike
Along with Brent crude, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has also seen a major price hike. The WTI rose by $4.66 or 6.95% to $71.68 per barrel after hitting a high of $75.33 earlier in the day, its highest since June 2025.
Shipping disruption
Iran has reportedly closed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz
The ongoing conflict has also resulted in collateral damage to ships, with missiles hitting at least three tankers off the Gulf coast and killing one seafarer. Iran has reportedly closed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for oil. This move has prompted Asian governments and refiners—major buyers—to assess their oil stockpiles amid rising concerns over supply disruptions.
Market forecast
Analysts warn of potential Brent prices this week
ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes has warned that the threat to oil supplies has significantly increased with retaliatory actions now extending to attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Citi analysts expect Brent crude prices to range between $80 and $90 per barrel this week amid the ongoing conflict. They believe either a regime change or a significant shift in leadership could lead to an end to hostilities within one or two weeks.
Production boost
OPEC+ agrees to modest oil output increase for April
In response to the ongoing conflict, OPEC+ has agreed to a modest oil output increase of 206,000 barrels per day for April. However, RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft has warned that any utilization of spare barrels will be severely limited if critical waterways are rendered inoperable. The International Energy Agency is closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and engaging with major producers and IEA governments.