US-India trade deadlock could cost thousands of jobs, expert warns
What's the story
Market expert Ajay Bagga has warned that the stalled trade talks between India and the United States could lead to job losses in several sectors. He said the lack of a deal could have second-order effects on labor-intensive industries such as textiles, gems and jewelry, and leather. The warning comes amid policy and geopolitical uncertainty affecting services exports from India.
Trade negotiations
Bagga questions US's commitment to trade deal
Bagga has expressed skepticism about the likelihood of a trade deal, saying, "I don't foresee a trade deal. They're making an example out of India." His comments come as Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal assured confidence in India's negotiating position. This was after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said talks with India had failed while Washington moved ahead with other countries.
Export concerns
Bagga highlights risks to India's services exports
Bagga has also flagged a major risk to India's services exports, which contribute significantly to the country's external earnings. He said, "It is a very big risk for India," and warned that job losses could emerge in textiles, gems and jewelry, and leather. The market expert suggested that continued tariff pressure and uncertainty could weaken export competitiveness and lead to employment stress in key sectors.
Tariff reduction
Bagga suggests geopolitical conditions for tariff rollback
India currently faces 50% tariffs. Bagga said the 25% excess punitive tariff on India could be rolled back only under specific geopolitical conditions. He said, "The 25% excess tariff could be removed if there is a Russia-Ukraine peace deal," suggesting that trade outcomes are increasingly linked to global political settlements rather than bilateral economics. Despite the lack of a comprehensive pact, he urged India to pursue an interim solution.
Investigation criticism
Bagga criticizes investigation against Fed Governor Powell
Bagga also criticized the criminal investigation against US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, calling it a "huge disappointment." He said, "It's a criminal investigation against a sitting central bank governor," adding that Powell's description of it as a political decision was deeply concerning. In his formal statement, Powell had warned of risks to monetary policy independence due to threats of criminal charges stemming from the Fed setting interest rates based on economic assessments rather than presidential preferences.