Why OPEC+ is raising oil production again
What's the story
OPEC+ has approved an increase in oil production quotas by some 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) for September. The decision was taken by core OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman. This marks the completion of a phased rollback of voluntary output cuts introduced in 2023.
Market impact
Despite monthly output increases, global oil markets remain largely unaffected
Despite a series of monthly output increases throughout 2026, export disruptions due to the US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars have limited their impact on global oil markets.
The September quota increase completes the rollback of a 1.65 million bpd voluntary production cut agreed in 2023 when UAE was still part of the production management arrangement.
Future negotiations
OPEC+ to begin setting baselines and quotas for 2027
OPEC+ is reviewing member countries' oil production capacities for setting baselines and quotas from 2027 onward.
This process could lead to tough negotiations as some members, including Iraq, are pushing for higher individual quotas due to their expanded capacity.
The next meeting of the seven core producers will be on September 6 where they will assess market conditions and decide on output policy for the rest of the year.