Lockdown prevented 20 lakh COVID-19 cases, 54,000 deaths: Government
India has managed to avert an estimated 20 lakh cases of COVID-19 and saved 54,000 lives due to the nationwide lockdown, the government said on Friday. The government said that the lockdown was timely, proactive, and pre-emptive. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) cited multiple statistical models to highlight the gains of the nationwide lockdown, which was enforced on March 25.
MoSPI Secretary Pravin Srivastava presented four statistical models during Friday's press briefing. Srivastava said the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) estimated that 36-70 lakh COVID-19 cases and 1.2-2.1 lakh deaths had been averted due to the lockdown. According to a Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI) estimate, Srivastava said, India averted 78,000 deaths due to the lockdown.
The lockdown helped save 68,000 lives and avoid 23 lakh cases, a third estimate by two independent economists showed. A fourth estimate by independent experts suggested India avoided 15.9 lakh cases and over 51,000 deaths, Srivastava said.
A joint study of multiple models by the MoSPI and the Indian Statistical Institute suggested that India averted between 14 lakh and 29 lakh cases of COVID-19 (average 20 lakh cases). The study focused on the impacts of the first two phases of the lockdown (March 25-May 3). It said an estimated 37,000-78,000 lives have been saved due to the lockdown (average 54,000 deaths).
VK Paul, Chairperson of Empowered Group-1, said during the presser that the growth rate of infections and deaths has dipped since late-March/early-April, even as the absolute number of new cases reported each day has since steadily risen. Paul said the lockdown period has also been utilized to advance India's health infrastructure, indigenous manufacturing capacity, disease preparedness, surveillance, etc.
According to the Union Health Ministry, as of 8 am on Friday, India had reported a total of 1,18,447 cases of COVID-19. These included 3,583 deaths and 66,330 active cases along with 48,533 recoveries and one patient who migrated out of India.
Paul pointed out that 80% of all infections in India are located in five states (Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Delhi, and Madhya Pradesh). Separately, he said 60% of all cases were concentrated in five cities (Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Ahmedabad, and Thane). He also said that 80% of all deaths were concentrated in five states: Maharashtra, Gujarat, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, and Delhi.