El Niño 2026 may weaken monsoon, raise drought risk: IMD
What's the story
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of a challenging monsoon season in 2026. Its first long-range forecast predicts below-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon from June to September. The IMD estimates rainfall will be around 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), classifying it as "below normal." This raises concerns about possible drought conditions, water scarcity, crop damage, and extreme weather events across India.
Weather patterns
Understanding El Niño's impact on Indian monsoon
El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It usually weakens monsoon winds, resulting in below-normal rainfall during India's southwest monsoon season. This can lead to drought-like conditions, rising temperatures, water scarcity, and lower agricultural production. However, some southern coastal regions may witness excessive rainfall and flooding during El Niño years.
Rainfall deficit
Increased risk of deficient rainfall in 2026
The IMD has predicted a higher-than-normal probability of deficient rainfall in 2026, with the risk increasing sharply to nearly 35%. A deficient monsoon is defined as rainfall below 90% of the Long Period Average. Weather agencies suggest that while June and early July may remain stable, August and September could see intensified El Niño conditions affecting rainfall distribution across India.
Vulnerable areas
States likely to face severe rainfall shortages
Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are likely to face severe rainfall shortages if El Niño intensifies. These northwestern states depend heavily on seasonal rain for agriculture and groundwater recharge. Central India, especially Madhya Pradesh, may also see lower-than-usual rainfall, with regions like Indore and Gwalior facing dry weather conditions. Maharashtra's Marathwada region and northern Karnataka could experience crop stress due to reduced rainfall during this period.
Flood risks
Excessive rainfall risks in southern coastal states
Southern coastal states such as Tamil Nadu and parts of Andhra Pradesh could witness excessive rainfall during El Niño conditions. Chennai, which suffered devastating floods during the 2015 El Niño event, remains vulnerable to urban flooding and waterlogging if intense rainfall episodes occur again. The IMD's updated monsoon forecast at the end of May 2026 will provide more detailed information on these risks and evolving weather patterns.