Fertilizer shortage and weak monsoon cloud India's 2026 kharif sowing
India's 2026 kharif sowing season is approaching under a rocky start, with farmers dealing with a serious fertilizer shortage and gloomy monsoon predictions.
Urea imports are tricky right now: global prices are high thanks to Gulf region conflicts, and India needs almost four times its current stock.
To help, the government has bumped up subsidies by 12% and frozen DAP prices, but this is putting extra strain on public finances.
IMD forecasts 92% southwest monsoon rainfall
The India Meteorological Department expects below-normal rainfall for the southwest monsoon (just 92% of the usual average), which hasn't happened in three years.
With El Nino likely making things worse between June and September, water-heavy crops like rice, cotton, and oilseeds could take a hit.
This combo of less rain and fewer fertilizers threatens crop yields, farmer incomes, and stable food prices.
The government's challenge now: keeping fertilizers affordable without breaking the bank.