India Meteorological Department lowers 2026 monsoon forecast to 90% normal
India
The India Meteorological Department has lowered its monsoon forecast for 2026 to just 90% of the usual rainfall, making it potentially the driest year since 2015.
northwest India is expected to see the driest region, with rainfall likely below 92% of average levels.
Below-normal June rains threaten kharif sowing
June's rain, vital for starting Kharif crops, is predicted to be below normal, and hotter days plus extra heat waves are on the way in Bihar, Odisha, and Uttar Pradesh.
Farmers may face tough conditions during sowing. Less rain could make pulses and oilseeds more vulnerable, but strong rice stocks should help for now.
Still, food prices might rise, especially for perishables and imported oils, thanks to global El Nino disruptions.