India's population will stand at around 1.9B by 2080
What's the story
India's population is tipped to stabilize at around 1.8-1.9 billion by 2080, according to the Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP). Anil Chandran, IASP general secretary, told PTI that this is a "rapid demographic transition" with birth rates declining sharply over the past two decades. The total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped from 3.5 in 2000 to its current level of 1.9, he said.
Population peak
India's population growth to peak below 2 billion
Chandran said all estimates indicate that India's population will peak below two billion. The decline in fertility rates is mainly due to rising development indicators, especially increased female literacy. This has changed decisions around marriage and family size, leading couples to be better informed and exercise greater control over when and how many children they have.
Fertility decline
Development inversely proportional to birth rates
Chandran said development is inversely proportional to birth rates, with educated groups having a TFR between 1.5 and 1.8. Kerala achieved replacement-level fertility between 1987 and 1989, and now has a TFR of around 1.5. West Bengal's TFR has also sharply declined from 1.7 in 2013 to just 1.3 in the SRS Statistical Report for 2023, making it one of India's lowest fertility regions along with Tamil Nadu and Delhi.
Elderly care challenges
Improved healthcare leads to rising life expectancy
Despite declining birth rates, improved healthcare has led to rising life expectancy. Chandran said this presents new challenges such as elderly care, especially with younger people migrating for work. Solutions like elderly day-care centers are being discussed to address these challenges. Founded in 1971, IASP comprises around 1,100 demographers and population scientists who work on demographic change issues with organizations such as UNFPA and the Population Council.