India to receive 'below normal' rainfall this monsoon season
What's the story
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a "below-normal" southwest monsoon season this year due to the developing El Nino phenomenon. The forecast suggests that seasonal rainfall will be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which is 87cm based on data from 1971-2020. "Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall during June-September this year will be 92 percent of the LPA with an error margin of 5 percent," said M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.
Weather patterns
What is El Nino and its impact on India
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate pattern that warms or cools the eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting global weather. In India, it has a major effect on monsoon rainfall. The IMD's forecast indicates a 31% chance of "below-normal" rains and a 35% chance of deficient rainfall (below 90% of LPA). The prediction could affect irrigation, drinking water availability in arid regions, reservoir capacity and hydropower potential. It may also impact summer-sown kharif crops and winter-sown rabi crops.
Agricultural impact
IMD's 1st forecast in a decade
The IMD's forecast is the first of its kind in at least a decade to predict below-normal rainfall at this stage. In 2015 and 2016, similar forecasts predicted 93% rain for the season. While below-normal rainfall is expected over large parts of the country, some regions in the northeast, northwest and south peninsular India are likely to receive normal to above-normal precipitation.
Climate factors
Indian Ocean Dipole may counter El Nino effects
There is also a possibility that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may turn favorable around August, IMD chief Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said. A positive IOD could lead to more rainfall and potentially counter the effects of El Nino in the second half of the monsoon season. Currently, neutral IOD conditions are present over the Indian Ocean but forecasts indicate positive conditions could develop toward the end of this year's southwest monsoon season.