Kerala expects milder summer, but monsoon faces El Niño threat
What's the story
Weather experts have predicted that Kerala's summer may not be as harsh as last year. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a maximum temperature rise of around 4°C above normal in the coming weeks. However, this year's summer is expected to be milder than last year's. Neetha K Gopal, IMD Kerala director, said "sporadic rains in connection with easterly winds can be expected occasionally in the coming weeks."
Monsoon forecast
Concerns over potential El Niño impact on monsoon
Oceanographers have expressed concerns that the monsoon could be impacted by possible El Niño conditions in late 2026. Currently, La Niña is prevailing, with sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Equatorial sea remaining below average. National Institute of Oceanography emeritus scientist S Prasannakumar said, "If La Niña influence diminishes, monsoon may be closer to normal." However, there is a risk of a weaker monsoon later if El Niño emerges after neutral conditions are established.
Weather variability
El Niño's potential effects on global weather patterns
Private weather forecaster Skymet has predicted that an El Niño could develop in the second half of 2026. This could lead to increased weather variability and suppress monsoon rainfall over India. El Niño is known to disrupt global weather patterns, causing droughts in vulnerable regions such as the Indian subcontinent by shifting rainfall patterns.