Monsoon ends with 13% deficit; drought declared in 5 states
What's the story
India has recorded its lowest monsoon rainfall in over a decade, with precipitation 12.6% below average for the June-September season. The El Nino weather phenomenon is largely responsible for this dip, according to a senior official from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). El Nino events are characterized by periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which have historically weakened India's monsoon performance.
Drought declaration
Government declares drought in 5 states
In light of the weak monsoon, the central government has declared a drought in five states, including Karnataka, parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Rajasthan.
The government has also revised its foodgrain production target for 2026-27 to 373.93 million tons from last year's output of 376.56 million tons.
The new target, however, is still higher than the previous year's target of 362 million tons.
Rainfall forecast
IMD predicts below-normal rainfall to continue into October
The IMD has predicted that the uneven rainfall pattern will continue into October, with below-normal precipitation expected over most parts of India.
However, northwest and southern peninsular regions may see normal to above-normal rainfall.
This comes as El Nino conditions are likely to peak in November before weakening. The agency also noted unusually high temperatures in September, with average maximum temperatures ( 32.05°C) being the highest since 1901.
Temperature effect
Deficient rainfall, high temperatures spell trouble for rabi sowing
The combination of deficient rainfall and high temperatures has left large areas of India with inadequate soil moisture for winter crops.
This spells serious trouble for rabi sowing and overall crop prospects, according to founder of HnbY Deepak Pareek.
District-level data from the IMD showed that 32% of districts experienced deficient rainfall in September, while another 16% were in the large-deficient category.