IMD predicts below-normal rainfall in September, El Niño effect likely
What's the story
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted below-normal rainfall for the month of September, which marks the end of India's four-month monsoon season. The country has already recorded a 14% deficit in cumulative rainfall from June 1 to August 31. The IMD had earlier indicated that El Niño could be affecting this year's monsoon patterns.
Temperature and rainfall
August warmest since 1901
August was India's warmest August since 1901, with a mean temperature of 28.010°C.
Despite heavy rains in some regions, the country witnessed over a 16% national deficit in rainfall during the month.
IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said many parts of India are likely to receive below-normal rainfall in September. However, northwest, northeast, east, east-central and southeast peninsular India may see normal to above-normal precipitation.
Crop concerns
Farmers may be affected by dry September
The IMD has observed "strong El Niño conditions" over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which could further weaken India's monsoon.
This is particularly concerning for farmers as a dry September may increase irrigation costs and affect crop yields.
The uneven distribution of rainfall has already raised concerns in India, with paddy sowing declining by 3%.
Temperature impact
Neutral IOD conditions observed
The Indian Ocean is currently under neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, which are not expected to enhance monsoon activity.
South peninsular India experienced its second-warmest August since 1901, while east and northeast India recorded their third-warmest August and northwest India its fifth-warmest August in 126 years.
The IMD has forecasted below-normal monsoon rainfall for India in 2026, with precipitation likely at 90% of the long-period average (LPA) during the June-September season.
Future forecast
Strong El Niño forecast for late 2026 or early 2027
Forecasts suggest a strong El Niño could emerge by late 2026 or early 2027, possibly weakening before India's next monsoon season.
Historically, strong El Niño events have peaked around the end of the year and faded before the Indian monsoon.
Early subsurface cooling signals in the western Pacific may indicate such a transition for next year.
However, reports cited experts cautioning that stronger El Niño events do not automatically lead to weaker Indian monsoons.