Monsoon shortfall and strong El Nino risk India's rabi sowing

India Oct 03, 2026

India's winter (rabi) crop season is off to a tough start.

Thanks to a 12.6% shortfall in this year's monsoon (the fourth-lowest monsoon rainfall since 2001), soil moisture is down, and the El Nino weather pattern is expected to become very strong by November 2026.

This combo could make it harder for farmers to sow and grow key crops like wheat, gram, and jowar.

Wheat irrigated, gram and jowar vulnerable

Reservoir levels are already 1% below average, which is especially worrying for states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Karnataka.

Wheat fields are mostly covered by irrigation (more than 95%), but crops like gram and jowar aren't as lucky.

If water shortages continue, some farmers may have to delay planting or cut back on how much they grow this season.