Central India likely to receive heavy rainfall in coming days
What's the story
The monsoon is likely to become more active in central India, with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall expected through mid-August. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicts significant rain over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, parts of Maharashtra, and adjoining areas between August 8-15. Some areas may see accumulated rainfall exceeding 100-200mm, while isolated higher totals are possible in the Northeast.
Seasonal forecast
IMD's seasonal forecast and El Nino effects
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that the monsoon season may end below normal, with seasonal rainfall expected to be around 90% of the long-period average.
This is among the factors influencing the broader seasonal outlook, with developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific.
However, a below-normal monsoon does not mean every week will be dry, as short-lived weather systems can still produce intense rainfall over specific regions.
Forecast details
ECMWF's prediction of widespread rain in central India
The ECMWF's ensemble and deterministic forecasts show the monsoon trough and associated low-pressure systems supporting a stronger flow of moisture into Central India.
The core monsoon zone is likely to see widespread moderate to heavy rain, while northern and northeastern parts of the country may witness more scattered but significant rainfall.
Recent IMD bulletins have already reported heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places over East Rajasthan, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and neighboring areas.
Impact of rainfall
Potential impacts of below-normal monsoon on rainfall events
Even if the seasonal rainfall total remains below normal, individual bursts of heavy rain can have a major impact.
Intense rainfall over a short period can cause waterlogging, flooding, and disruption in vulnerable areas.
Climate scientists warn that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, potentially making individual rainfall events more intense.
Thus, even against a potentially below-normal monsoon season, Central India could see significant rain in the days ahead.