Skymet's GP Sharma says India's August rainfall 10% below normal
India's August 2026 rainfall is expected to drop about 10% below normal, according to GP Sharma, President of Skymet Weather Services.
July saw a tiny boost, but things are changing: around August 12, the monsoon will shift rains toward the foothills of Nepal, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and northeast India.
Vidarbha, Marathwada 13% and 12% deficits
Vidarbha and Marathwada in Maharashtra now have rain deficits of 13% and 12%, up sharply from just days ago.
Karnataka and Gujarat are also set for a drier stretch ahead after brief heavy showers.
Sharma points out this pattern fits El Nino years, when one monsoon month tends to fall short.
El Nino strengthens, IOD 0.6 insufficient
El Nino is getting stronger this year, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) isn't powerful enough (currently at 0.6) to balance things out.
It needs to be between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius for real impact.