Why has southwest monsoon's progress stalled over Maharashtra? IMD explains
What's the story
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the Southwest Monsoon's progress over parts of Maharashtra has been stalled due to unfavorable large-scale meteorological conditions. The monsoon had first advanced over parts of South Konkan and adjoining areas of South Madhya Maharashtra on June 8, but further progress has been delayed. "Current numerical weather guidance suggests an increase in rainfall activity over Konkan belt around 24-25 June 2026. The synoptic conditions are being continuously monitored," it said.
Weather patterns
Weaker moisture transport to coast, interior regions
Per IMD, the current monsoon flow is missing a strong surge from the Arabian Sea, responsible for enhanced moisture incursion and widespread rainfall. It noted that low-level southwesterly winds linked with monsoon circulation have weakened over the Arabian Sea. This has led to decrease in moisture transport toward Maharashtra's coast and interior regions. Additionally, the cross-equatorial flow over the western Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea—a key source of moisture for the Southwest Monsoon—has also weakened recently, further reducing monsoon activity.
Rainfall forecast
Rainfall likely to remain isolated in next few days
It also said that the prevailing large-scale circulation patterns, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), are not showing strong support for further monsoon advancement over Maharashtra. Consequently, rainfall activity is likely to remain isolated across most parts of the state in the next four to five days. It said current numerical weather guidance indicates an increase in rainfall activity over the Konkan belt around June 24-25.