Super El Niño: India braces for scorching heat, erratic rain
What's the story
Climate experts have warned of a possible "super El Niño" phenomenon later this year, which could lead to rising global temperatures and unusual weather patterns. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has released data indicating that ocean and atmospheric signals may start aligning by June. This is a major development for the El Niño phenomenon, which occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise significantly above normal levels.
Weather phenomenon
What is El Niño phenomenon?
Under normal conditions, trade winds push warm water toward Southeast Asia and Australia, while cool water rises near South America. The El Niño effect weakens these winds, pushing warm water eastward across the Pacific. This leads to a major shift in global atmospheric circulation with rising air and heavy rainfall over the central and eastern Pacific.
Regional impact
What impact will El Niño have on India?
In India, the El Niño effect has historically been linked to hotter temperatures and weaker monsoon rainfall. The summer monsoon relies on temperature differences between land and ocean. During an El Niño event, altered atmospheric circulation can weaken monsoon winds, bringing moisture from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. This could lead to heatwaves in northern and central India and rainfall deficits during the monsoon season.
Global effects
Record global temperatures expected
A powerful El Niño could push global temperatures to record highs, as seen in past events like 1997-98 and 2015-16. These events caused extreme weather worldwide and temporarily increased global warming levels. The ECMWF forecast suggests that ocean and atmosphere may become fully coupled by June, reinforcing each other in a key requirement for a full El Niño event.
Future predictions
Other impacts of 'super El Niño'
While it is still early to predict the full intensity of this potential "super El Niño" event, scientists say signals are increasingly clear. The developing climate pattern could reshape weather patterns around the world in the coming months. Beyond India, stronger vertical wind shear in the Atlantic may suppress hurricane activity, while the western Pacific could see more typhoons than usual due to this phenomenon.