Bihar exit polls: 2 pollsters predict close NDA-Mahagathbandhan contest
What's the story
A tenth pollster has predicted a win for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), although with a slim margin. According to Vote Vibe, the NDA is expected to win between 125 and 145 seats in the 243-seat Assembly. The Mahagathbandhan is projected to secure between 95-115 seats. Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party may either not win any seats or manage to win two, per Vote Vibe. Axis My India exit poll also gave the NDA a lead over the Mahagathbandhan.
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Axis My India's prediction
It predicted 121-141 seats for the NDA, 98-118 for Mahagathbandhan. A total of 122 seats are needed for a simple majority. Axis My India gave the Nitish Kumar-led NDA 43% of the vote, with the Mahagatbandhan following closely behind at 41%. Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraj party is expected to receive 4%. The pollster also said that more first-time voters favored the Mahagathbandhan, with 46% of the 18-19 group voting for it. In comparison, more women (45%) voters favored the NDA.
Poll predictions
Poll of exit polls
Among the nine other exit polls released on Tuesday, Chanakya Strategies gave the lowest margin for the ruling alliance with a prediction of 130-138 seats. People's Insight and People's Pulse predicted a minimum of 133 seats for NDA, while Matrize forecasted a maximum of 167 seats. NDTV's Poll of Exit Polls aggregates these predictions and estimates that NDA will win around 146 seats, Mahagathbandhan will get about 91 seats, and Jan Suraaj Party may end up with one seat.
Political implications
BJP, NDA may gain big in Bihar
If these exit poll predictions hold true, it would be a major boost for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and NDA. This would be their fourth major win since they fared worse than expected in the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP had also retained power in Haryana, stayed in power in Maharashtra, and driven the AAP out of power in Delhi.