Super El Niño could cause 451,000 deaths in 6 months
What's the story
The developing El Niño phenomenon could result in an additional 451,000 deaths from extreme heat between September 2026 and February 2027, a new report by the Climate Impact Lab has estimated. The El Niño reached its highest temperature ever recorded for the phenomenon on Monday, several months before its expected peak. Scientists have described the heat as "mind-blowing" and "Godzilla-level" compared to past incidents.
Regional impact
Global South to suffer most
The report highlights that the burden of heat-related deaths will be disproportionately borne by the Global South.
The Sahel region alone is projected to witness 66,800 additional fatalities due to extreme heat, with Nigeria accounting for 31,400 deaths and Sudan 17,500.
Southeast Asia could see a combined toll of 19,400 in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, while Indonesia may record another 19,300 deaths.
Global toll
India and Brazil among worst-hit countries
India is estimated to witness 15,800 additional heat-related deaths during this period. Brazil follows closely with an estimated 13,300 fatalities.
The Climate Impact Lab's estimates could help governments implement protective measures such as heat warnings, cooling centers, hydration facilities, protection for outdoor workers and strengthening health-system capacity to mitigate the impact of extreme temperatures on their populations.
Weather patterns
Current El Nino event expected to peak in November-December
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said that the current El Nino event is firmly established and likely to intensify further, with its peak expected around November-December this year.
A recent assessment by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) showed sea-surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region were 1.8°C above normal, while the eastern equatorial Pacific had anomalies exceeding 3°C.
Global warming
Effects of El Nino already being felt globally
The effects of El Nino are already being felt around the world.
August 2026 was the hottest August on record, matching July 2023 as the hottest month ever recorded, with a global average surface-air temperature of 16.96°C.
The Climate Impact Lab describes this event as a "postcard from the future," because temperatures expected in coming months resemble what climate models predict for about two decades from now.