T20 World Cup: Can Pakistan still qualify for semi-finals?
What's the story
Pakistan's journey in the Super 8 stage of the T20 World Cup 2026 has been marred by a defeat to England. The loss has left them with little room for error and almost no control over their own destiny. Despite being on just one point from two matches, they can still qualify for the semi-finals under certain scenarios. Here we decode the same.
Pathways
Scenario 1: NZ lose both matches
Pakistan's path to the semi-finals is simple but complicated. They have one game left against Sri Lanka on February 28 in Pallekele, which they must win. A victory would take them to three points, but their qualification also depends on other results. If New Zealand lose both their remaining matches (against Sri Lanka and England), Pakistan would qualify directly for the semi-finals with a win over Sri Lanka. Notably, NZ's opening Super 8 game, against Pakistan, got washed out.
Tiebreaker
Scenario 2: If NZ win 1 match
If New Zealand win one match and lose the other, they would finish on three points. In this case, qualification could come down to net run rate (NRR). Pakistan's current NRR (-0.461) makes their margin of victory against Sri Lanka crucial. A narrow win might not suffice; they would ideally want a decisive result while hoping England beat New Zealand convincingly to lower New Zealand's NRR.
Elimination risk
What if NZ win both games?
If New Zealand win both their remaining matches, they would qualify with England, knocking Pakistan out even before their final Super 8 match. Super 8 games don't have reserve days, so a washout would mean one point each and could complicate the race. Pakistan would want a full game in Pallekele and a ruthless win focused on improving their NRR.