China's birth rate hits lowest level since 1949
What's the story
China has recorded its lowest birth rate since the founding of the People's Republic in 1949. The National Bureau of Statistics announced that births fell to 5.6 per 1,000 people in 2025, with newborns declining by 1.6 million to a total of 7.9 million. The country's population also shrank by 3.4 million to reach an estimated 1.405 billion, marking the largest decline since the Great Famine in the early 1960s.
Crisis deepens
China's demographic crisis deepens despite government incentives
The latest figures pose a challenge to President Xi Jinping's vision of a fertility-friendly society. The declining birth rate and shrinking workforce raise concerns over economic sustainability and the strain on China's pension system. In an effort to reverse this trend, Beijing has implemented pro-natalist policies such as extended maternity and paternity leave, easier marriage registration, and direct financial support for families with children under three.
Incentives introduced
Financial support and tax incentives introduced to boost birth rates
Couples are now given around $500 every year for each child under three years old. A 13% value-added tax on contraceptive drugs and devices has also been introduced from January 1, 2026. Independent demographer He Yafu believes that government subsidies are "too small" to significantly increase birth rates. He attributes the continued decline to fewer women of childbearing age and falling marriage rates.
Policy impact
China's 1-child policy and its impact on birth rates
The shrinking number of potential mothers is partly due to the one-child policy, which was abolished in 2015 but has left structural imbalances in China's population. The declining marriage rates and fewer women of childbearing age are key reasons behind the continued fall in birth rates. Despite government efforts, China's demographic crisis continues to deepen with record low birth rates and a shrinking population.