Revolution against Putin could happen 'overnight': Estonia's spy chief
What's the story
Kaupo Rosin, the Director General of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS), has predicted that any political change in Russia would be sudden and unexpected. He said a revolution against President Vladimir Putin could happen "overnight." However, he doesn't see any immediate threat to Putin's rule. In an interview with The Telegraph, Rosin noted increasing public discontent with the war in Ukraine across all levels of Russian society.
Elite influence
Rosin emphasizes elite sentiments matter most
Rosin emphasized that it's the sentiments of the elite, not public discontent, that influence Putin's decisions.
"More important is what people who have access to money, weapons and information—what do they think?" he said.
He said voices within these circles are increasingly urging Putin to reconsider his stance on the war.
Despite support from US President Donald Trump, Russia hasn't achieved its objectives in Ukraine.
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes have repeatedly hit Russia's energy infrastructure and supply lines.
Military tactics
Russia's dire economic situation
Rosin said Russia's most powerful circles have stopped talking about total victory in Ukraine. Instead, they are discussing how to end the war properly.
He added that Putin is left with bad options, each carrying risks for his political future.
The Russian economy is in a dire state, Rosin said, adding that powerbrokers may be rethinking their options amid these challenges.
Recent developments
Ballistic missiles vs deep drone campaign
Since 2022, the stakes have risen for both Russia and Ukraine. A recent Russian strike on an arms and munitions depot in Myla near Kyiv killed at least 38 people, marking one of the deadliest single attacks of this year.
Russia even employed nuclear-capable Iskander ballistic missiles.
Shortly before, Ukraine stepped up long-range drone strikes targeting economic and logistical nodes inside Russia, hitting oil refineries in Krasnodar and Samara as well as a major Wildberries online retailer hub.