Not herd-immunity; vaccine critical for ending pandemic, says Bill Gates

Gates highlighted two issues with relying on the herd immunity strategy.

To achieve herd immunity, many more would need to get sick, which would mean millions of deaths, Gates said.

Secondly, herd immunity is always temporary, he added. Since children will be born without immunity to the virus, it will eventually start spreading again.

"For both reasons, a vaccine is critical," he said.

Gates said it is too soon to answer how long a vaccine's protection would last adding, "We don't have enough data on the duration of antibody and T-cell response to the disease itself, let alone to the various vaccine candidates."

He said vaccines currently under development use different mechanisms, which offers a greater possibility of finding an effective vaccine.

Further, Gates said India's pharmaceutical industry and vaccine producers will play a "major role" in ending the pandemic.

He said India has the potential to "manufacture high-quality vaccines at scale for affordable prices," citing the example of the Serum Institute of India.

The institute manufactures more vaccines than any other company, Gates said, and it has agreed to price its vaccines at around $3/dose.

With many countries entering billion-dollar deals to pre-order millions of doses of vaccines, there is speculation that the vaccine may not reach low and middle-income countries in time.

Gates assured that the Gavi vaccine alliance has 20 years' experience in helping low-income countries with immunization. It is also one of the partners for the COVAX initiative, which aims to ensure equitable access to vaccines.

Gates said it would be "hard to overstate the importance of data." He said while we are waiting on vaccines and treatments, the focus is on understanding "with precision" how the disease is spreading.

He said, "When new treatments and vaccines become available, data will be critical in helping the world determine how those new tools are changing the patterns of disease."

Gates said, "The root cause of everything that's happening is a virus that doesn't recognize borders. Borders matter less and less to the global economy, too."

He added, "While policies that stop at borders may help citizens of a given country cope with the symptoms of the crisis, they won't stop it. Every country will benefit when all countries work together on solutions."

Gates had said after the H1N1 outbreak that the world is not prepared for the next pandemic. When asked about global preparedness now, he said, "We know a lot more now about what it will take to be fully prepared."

"We've seen examples of partners working in new ways that will help keep the next pandemic from doing as much damage as this one."

Globally, the virus has infected over 29 million, including 0.9 million deaths.

The United States is the worst-hit country with 6.5 million cases and 1.9 lakh deaths.

Speaking to STAT, Gates criticized America's handling of the crisis saying, "You know, this has been a mismanaged situation every step of the way."

India is the second worst-hit with 4.9 million cases and 80,776 deaths.