Wargame shows Russia could capture Lithuanian city in 2 days
What's the story
A wargame conducted by Germany's Die Welt newspaper and Helmut Schmidt University's German Wargaming Centre has predicted that Russia could capture a key Lithuanian city, Marijampole, in just two days. The scenario is set in October 2026 and assumes the United States would not invoke NATO's collective defense clause, Article 5. The exercise also showed hesitation from European allies such as Germany and Poland in deploying troops to defend the city.
Strategic simulation
Russia to use 'humanitarian crisis' as pretext for invasion
The wargame envisioned Russia using a fake "humanitarian crisis" in Kaliningrad as a pretext for invading Marijampole. The city is strategically located on major European transport routes, making its capture crucial for Russia to control the Baltics. The exercise involved around 15,000 Russian troops and showed Moscow could achieve most of its objectives without escalating into a full-scale war.
Political implications
Europe likely to hesitate in responding militarily
The wargame highlighted that Russian success would depend more on political expectations than military might. Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst who played Russia's chief of the general staff in the exercise, said Moscow's advantage lay in anticipating Germany's caution. Bartlomiej Kot, who played Poland's prime minister, stressed that Europe tends to think it should be de-escalating when confronted with Russia's escalatory narrative.
Rising concerns
Wargame's findings raise alarm about Russian threat to NATO
The wargame's findings come amid increasing worries in Europe that Russia could pose a more immediate threat to NATO than previously thought. Last year, there were repeated incursions by Russian drones and planes into NATO airspace, which officials said were probes to test alliance responses. Netherlands Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans said his government assessed that "Russia will be able to move large amounts of troops within one year."
Simulation purpose
Simulation 'very realistic': NATO's former spokesperson
While the wargame was fictional, its designers stressed that it was meant to expose how decision-making and alliance politics could unfold under pressure. Oana Lungescu, NATO's former principal spokesperson, warned a bad peace in Ukraine could make Russia more dangerous to NATO. She called the simulation "very realistic, unfortunately." The exercise brought together former senior political decision-makers and retired military leaders from NATO member states.