Why Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba is unlikely to succeed him
What's the story
After Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death was confirmed by Iranian state media, speculation is rife about his potential successor. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's Prime Minister, was the first to claim evidence of the 86-year-old leader's death after recent attacks on his compound in Tehran. A senior Israeli official also confirmed to Reuters that Khamenei's body had been discovered. This was followed by Trump's announcement on Truth Social. However, Iran now faces the onerous task of choosing a new leader.
Successor candidates
Mojtaba faces hurdles in becoming next Supreme Leader
Last year, Khamenei reportedly named three possible successors, according to The New York Times. However, his son Mojtaba was not among them. Mojtaba is a cleric with close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps but faces several hurdles in becoming the next Supreme Leader. The Middle East Institute, a think tank based in Washington, notes that constitutional requirements may pose a challenge for Mojtaba's succession due to a lack of formal political roles in the regime.
Succession controversy
Succession would violate Shi'a Islamic convention
Mojtaba's succession would also violate Shi'a Islamic convention, which reserves blood lineage for the mantle only for the 12 divinely ordained Shi'a Imams. Khamenei himself was elected over Khomeini's son Ahmad in 1989 for this reason. In a 2023 speech, Khamenei said, "dictatorship and hereditary government are not Islamic." Ayatollah Mahmoud Mohammadi Araghi of the Assembly of Experts revealed that an investigation into Mojtaba's leadership was stopped after concerns about hereditary issues were raised.
Future vision
Khamenei likely to choose hardline zealots to 'purify' regime
The Middle East Institute also suggests that Khamenei's vision for the future of the Islamic Republic could exclude Mojtaba. The next leader could likely be among the hardline zealots to "purify" the regime, the think tank noted. This would be contrary to a smooth transition envisioned by Khamenei, who had shortlisted successors last year. The uncertainty surrounding Iran's leadership continues as global attention remains focused on this critical moment in history.