BYD on track to surpass Tesla in global EV sales
What's the story
China's automotive giant BYD is all set to dethrone Tesla as the world's largest electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer in terms of annual sales. The two companies are expected to release their final figures for 2025 soon. However, based on the sales data so far this year, it looks nearly impossible for Elon Musk-led Tesla to retain its top spot.
Sales comparison
BYD's sales outpace Tesla's
As of November-end, Shenzhen-based BYD had sold 2.07 million EVs in 2025. In contrast, Tesla had sold only 1.22 million units by the end of September. This gap is likely to widen further as Tesla's sales for the upcoming quarter are expected to drop to around 449,000 units according to FactSet consensus analysis.
Sales forecast
Tesla's sales to drop by 7.7%
The projected drop in Tesla's sales for the fourth quarter would bring its total sales for 2025 to around 1.65 million units. This is a decline of 7.7% and well below the figure BYD had achieved by November-end. Deutsche Bank predicts just 405,000 Tesla EVs will be sold in Q4, with declines expected across North America, Europe, and China markets due to rising competition from BYD and other Chinese manufacturers as well as European automakers.
Market strategy
BYD's global expansion and challenges
Despite its rapid growth, BYD has encountered hurdles in its domestic market. The company's profitability in China has been affected by price-sensitive consumers. To counter this, it is focusing on expanding its presence in overseas markets. "Going forward, [BYD's] geographical diversification is likely to help it navigate an increasingly complicated global tariff environment," said Jing Yang of Fitch Ratings.
Future prospects
Tesla's potential for growth amid competition
Despite the uncertainty over its ability to reclaim global EV leadership, Tesla could still see growth. TD Cowen's Michaeli sees autonomous technology playing a key role in Tesla's future with advancements in its "full self-driving" or "FSD" systems potentially driving sales. Musk has said production of Cybercab, an autonomous robotaxi model, will start in April 2026.