China housing may bottom by Q3 2028 after new rules
China's housing market might finally catch a break, with prices expected to hit their lowest point by the third quarter of 2028.
Big cities like Beijing and Shanghai could even see prices start climbing again as soon as 2027.
This possible turnaround comes after the government rolled out new rules, like new restrictions on developers' ability to sell unfinished properties and offering subsidies to first-time buyers on more affordable properties.
China analysts expect late 2026 or 2027 rebound
S&P's Edward Chan says these steps are developers will now be very cautious in buying land, so they will basically buy less land and develop less new projects going forward.
China's strategy actually compares the depth of China's real estate downturn so far to how housing crises in Japan, the US and Spain played out in recent decades.
Some analysts think these moves could help major cities bounce back with price growth as early as late 2026, while S&P says a recovery in large cities may come in 2027, hinting at a slow but steady recovery ahead.