Crisil forecasts India's FY27 retail inflation rate at 5.1%
Heads up: India's retail inflation is set to climb in FY27, mainly because of pricier fuel and food supply issues linked to unpredictable weather.
Crisil expects the average inflation rate to hit 5.1%, way up from 2.0% in the previous fiscal (FY26).
If these cost pressures stick around, the RBI could raise interest rates in the second half of the fiscal year (H2 FY27, Oct 2026-Mar 2027).
India June inflation rose to 4.4%
Inflation jumped to 4.4% in June, breaking past the RBI's target for the first time since early 2025.
Food prices soared (think meat, milk, fruits, and oils), partly thanks to El Nino causing weak rainfall and hurting crops.
Fuel costs also shot up after a ₹7.5 per liter hike for petrol and diesel in May, with global oil prices staying high at $82 to $87 per barrel.
Producers are slowly passing on higher energy and transport costs too, but so far, core inflation remains steady at 3.9%.