Crisil lowers inflation forecast to 3.2%, opens door for rate cuts
Crisil just lowered its inflation forecast for India to 3.2% for the financial year 2025-26 (down from 3.5%).
This drop could open the door for the RBI to cut interest rates a bit, making loans cheaper and giving a boost to spending—even as the global economy stays shaky.
How is the economy doing?
CPI inflation is expected to fall sharply, with August 2025 numbers already at 2.1%—at the lower end of the RBI's comfort zone.
While food inflation remains negative year-on-year, food prices have seen a slight month-on-month uptick.
With things cooling off, Crisil thinks India's economy could grow by about 6.5% in FY26.
Risks to growth
Heavy floods in Punjab this kharif season—the worst in 40 years—could mess with food supplies and push prices up again.
Plus, global trade tensions might make things tricky for growth, even if good monsoon rains and lower rates help keep momentum going.