Financial crisis warning: Oil prices could trigger earnings risk
Bank of America's Michael Hartnett is sounding the alarm about a possible market slump in 2026, drawing comparisons to the financial crisis of 2007-08.
The US-Iran war has helped push oil prices up as much as 60% so far this year, with Brent crude now above $100 a barrel, Hartnett warns rising oil prices increase earnings risk for US stocks.
Hartnett lists triggers for potential crash
Big market swings can impact everything from jobs to savings.
Hartnett points out warning signs: pricey oil, a strong dollar, high bond yields (over 5% on 30-year Treasuries), and if the S&P 500 drops below 6,600.
These developments could raise pressure for policy intervention.
Private credit markets under pressure
Private credit markets are feeling pressure: banks such as JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are tightening up on withdrawals and loan checks.
Over in Europe, European Central Bank official Peter Kazimir is watching for inflation from West Asia that might force interest rate hikes—a reminder of policy missteps just before the last crash.
Markets seem hopeful any Iran conflict will be brief, but experts aren't letting their guard down.