Gold production set to hit record high in 2025
What's the story
The World Gold Council (WGC) has predicted that gold production will hit a new record high in 2025. The forecast is based on data from the first three quarters, which showed total gold production at 2,717 tons, a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 16 tons. The report attributes the rise to factors such as increasing margins, new projects (especially in Canada), operational expansion elsewhere, and higher output from artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM).
Market dynamics
New mines and sanctions could impact global gold output
The WGC report also notes that while sanctions may slow development, new mines in Russia could further boost total production. However, the suspension of some operations has significantly impacted global output in 2025 and could continue to restrict growth. The stability of gold mining has been observed over recent years with a near-zero annual change between 2018 and 2024 despite pandemic-related disruptions.
Annual growth
2024 sees slight increase in mined gold production
In 2024, mined gold production reached 3,645 tons, an increase of four tons YoY. This was the second-highest annual total after the record high of 3,658 tons in 2018. Despite a rising gold price, the WGC has only observed minor increases in output. This raises important questions about whether the industry is approaching its limits and what this could mean for future supply.
Future projections
Global mined gold production expected to plateau
The WGC's analysis and forecasts from Metals Focus suggest that global mined gold production is likely to gradually plateau over the next few years. This is not a peak-and-decline scenario, but rather a leveling off. New projects and ramp-ups should continue to support this trend, but declining reserves, disruptions, and rising capital expenditure (CAPEX) costs for gold miners could limit potential growth in production levels.