Goldman trims US recession risk to 15% after Iran deal
Business
Goldman Sachs just trimmed its prediction for a US recession in the next year from 25% down to 15%.
This shift comes after a peace deal with Iran helped drop energy prices and boosted the job market.
The new estimate is actually lower than their pre-war forecast and matches their usual long-term outlook.
Hatzius expects 2% US GDP H2-2026
Goldman Sachs's chief economist Jan Hatzius now expects US GDP growth to hit 2% in the second half of 2026, thanks to cheaper gas, AI-driven activity, and strong business spending.
Inflation is set to cool off as gas prices fall, with core CPI expected to rise modestly.
It also lowered its gold-price forecast by $500, but analysts say gold could still see some gains later this year.