India's crude oil import bill jumps 48% to nearly $75B
What's the story
India's crude oil import bill has witnessed a massive 48% jump, hitting $74.8 billion during the April-August period. The spike is largely due to higher global prices, even though the volume of imports remained more or less steady. Data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) shows that India imported 100.7 million tons of oil between April and August this year, slightly lower than last year's figure of 101.1 million tons for the same period.
Import surge
Prices of Indian crude basket surged to $90.19 per barrel
In August, India's oil import bill surged by 18% to $11.7 billion, despite a 3% decline in volumes to 19 million tons.
The average price of the Indian crude basket also saw sharp increase, hitting $90.19 per barrel in August from $69.1 last year.
This trend continued into September with Brent crude trading at around $102 per barrel on September 21, down 2% from previous close but still above $100 mark for over 18 days amid escalating West Asia tensions.
Price prediction
Crisil Intelligence revises Brent forecast, warns of economic impact
Crisil Intelligence has revised its Brent crude forecast for this fiscal to $88-93 per barrel, a 25-32% on-year increase. The revision comes amid inventory depletion and persistent West Asia tensions.
"Elevated energy prices invariably find their way into the broader cost structure of the economy," Crisil Intelligence said, adding that producers are increasingly able to pass on higher fuel and input costs to consumers under conditions of robust demand.
Geopolitical influence
US-Iran tensions, Yemeni Houthis's attacks push up crude prices
Escalating US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy route, and attacks by Yemeni Houthis on Saudi Arabia have pushed up crude prices.
The average price of the Indian crude basket has jumped to $113.9 per barrel in September from $69.61 last year.
India is the world's third-largest importer of crude oil, meeting over 85% of its needs through imports.
Economic concerns
Analysts warn of economic repercussions from rising import bill
Analysts have raised alarms over the potential economic impact of persistently higher landed prices of crude oil.
They say this could inflate the import bill, widen the current account deficit, and weigh on India's broader economy.
The country imports around 1.8-2 billion barrels of crude annually, with every $1-a-barrel increase in price adding up to $2 billion a year to its import bill.
Projections
West Asia conflict could keep crude prices elevated through 2027
If the West Asia conflict continues, India's crude basket could average above $90 a barrel in FY27.
Government sources had earlier told Moneycontrol that global prices could stabilize in the $80-85 range.
S&P Global Energy also expects crude to remain broadly in the $80-100 range through 2027, with Brent averaging around $90 or higher for the remainder of 2026 and at $86 next year, $5 higher than its previous outlook.