India's trade deficit widens to $30.4B in June
What's the story
India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $30.43 billion in June, up from $28.21 billion in May. In terms of year-on-year, the latest figure is 59% higher than $19.1 billion in June 2025. The widening gap came as imports outpaced exports during the month. However, goods exports saw a year-on-year increase of 15.5% to reach $40.41 billion in June, compared to $34.98 billion during the same period last year, according to official data.
Expert insights
Overall goods exports in April-June rose by about 15%
Trade analysts have noted that rising exports, new trade deals with other countries and blocs, and eased economic risks have strengthened India's position.
Despite disruptions from the war on Iran, overall goods exports in April-June rose by about 15% year-on-year.
This growth was largely driven by pricier petroleum shipments and a recovery in exports to Gulf countries.
Trade recovery
Exports to Gulf countries have recovered to pre-war levels
Exports to Gulf countries have recovered to pre-war levels, rising from $2.62 billion in March to $5.3 billion in May as traders switched routes.
Meanwhile, exports to the US rose slightly during April-May, reaching $17.29 billion.
India is also expanding access to other developed markets with a UK free trade pact coming into effect this month and an EU agreement likely by early next year.
Economic outlook
Goldman Sachs has raised India's growth forecast
Goldman Sachs economist Santanu Sengupta has said an interim US-Iran peace deal has improved India's economic outlook by easing oil prices.
The bank has raised its 2026 growth forecast for India to 6.8% and lowered its inflation and current-account deficit estimates.
This suggests that New Delhi may have more economic leverage to negotiate better terms in trade agreements.