India unlikely to overtake Japan as world's 3rd-largest economy
India's latest GDP numbers are in—and they've changed the game a bit.
With new data and a fresh calculation method, India's measured GDP under the revised series is lower than previously estimated, and the impact on growth rates is uncertain.
That makes it unlikely India will overtake Japan in size this year or next, as some had hoped.
But India's growth story is still strong
Even with the slower pace, India is still set to be one of the world's fastest-growing economies. The government's estimate is about $4 trillion for the fiscal year ending March 2026.
The source does not show an IMF projection of $4.5 trillion; it only says the IMF had previously forecast India would reach that milestone in the current fiscal year.
Growth is being powered by strong local demand and government spending, plus a young population ready to spend and invest.
So while overtaking Japan will take longer, India's economic story is still on an upward track.