India's retail inflation expected to top 6% in October 2026
India's retail inflation is expected to top 6% in October 2026, mainly because food prices keep climbing.
If this happens, it'll be the first time in two years that inflation goes above the Reserve Bank's comfort zone.
Official numbers drop on November 12, but September already saw a jump to 5.5%.
With food, fuel, and other essentials getting pricier, there's talk that the RBI might consider raising interest rates in December.
ICRA says food inflation above 8%
Most of the price hike comes from everyday staples like cereals, pulses, and cooking oils.
The El Nino weather pattern has made things tougher for farmers this year: rabi crop sowing is down by nearly half compared to last year.
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA Ltd. said, "ICRA expects the headline CPI inflation print to harden to 6.1% in October 2026 from 5.5% in September 2026, crossing the upper limit of the MPC's target range, partly owing to the unfavorable base on account of the GST rationalization," and Further she said that inflation in the food and beverages division is set to cross the 8% mark in October, amid a broad-based hardening across sub-segments...
Global oil prices may help keep fuel costs steady for now. RBI is keeping a close eye as it plans its next moves.