J.P. Morgan trims 2026 Brent crude outlook amid weak demand
J.P. Morgan has lowered its Brent crude oil price outlook for the rest of 2026, now expecting prices to average $86 a barrel in the third quarter, drop to $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter, and finish the year at $78 a barrel.
The main reasons? Demand isn't picking up as hoped, and inventories are being drawn down more slowly, plus private operators are keeping stocks steady with help from government oil reserves.
J.P. Morgan warns surplus risk ahead
The bank says bigger-than-expected demand losses and sluggish inventory draws have eased price pressure.
Oil flows jumped in June compared to earlier months, but J.P. Morgan expects OECD inventories to fall by another 50 million barrels between April and July.
Looking ahead, possible supply boosts from countries like Venezuela, Iran, Brazil, and the US could lead to a surplus later this year or early next, maybe even prompting production cuts if things get too crowded.