RBI's rate decision: Growth risks from US tariffs loom large
The Reserve Bank of India is about to announce its key interest rate, and honestly, it's a tricky call this time.
Inflation is under control, but India's growth is likely to face a hit after the US slapped a 50% tariff on our exports.
Earlier in 2025, the RBI cut rates to help out, but paused in August to see how things would shake out—especially with all the global uncertainty.
What to expect
Most economists think the RBI will keep the repo rate steady at 5.5%, but about a third hope for another small cut to boost growth.
With Governor Sanjay Malhotra playing it cautious and the rupee hitting record lows, any move comes with risks.
Analysts say if the RBI hints at future cuts (a "dovish" stance), it could calm markets while keeping options open during these tense trade times.
Why it matters
Whatever the RBI decides will ripple through everything from loan rates to job opportunities.
Keeping rates unchanged might help keep prices stable, but could also slow business growth and hiring.
Cutting rates could make borrowing easier and support jobs—but might push up inflation later on.
Economists generally note that RBI decisions can affect loan rates, business growth, and even job opportunities, though the article focuses on growth and inflation risks.
It's one of those moments where every choice counts for India's economy—and your wallet too.