Retail inflation likely rose to 2.2% in August
India's retail inflation likely rose to 2.2% in August 2025 (up from July's 1.6%), mostly because tomatoes and onions got pricier—even though overall food costs stayed pretty chill.
Official numbers drop September 12.
In July, food prices fell
Back in July, food prices actually fell, helping keep inflation super low.
Cheaper pulses, veggies, and spices made things easier at the checkout.
But heavy rains and flooding could mess with crops soon, so brace for possible bumps ahead.
GST rate cuts could lower inflation
The impact of recent GST rate cuts is expected to shave about one percentage point off inflation starting October—giving everyone a bit of breathing room.
The RBI isn't rushing to change interest rates just yet since the economy grew a solid 7.8% this spring.
What about interest rates?
As long as growth stays strong, don't expect big changes from the RBI.
But if growth slows or GST cuts keep prices down into next year, more rate cuts might be on the table.