Why US-Iran tensions are pushing oil prices up
Oil prices are the highest they've been in half a year, with Brent crude at $70.69 and WTI at $65.21 per barrel.
The main reason? Rising friction between the US and Iran has people worried about possible disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies—especially since Iran is a key OPEC+ player, pumping out 3.3 million barrels a day.
US tariffs on Iran and potential military action
President Trump is considering targeted strikes on Iranian security forces to support recent protests, and the US just slapped a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran.
All this has made things even tenser, pushing oil prices up.
If shipments through Strait of Hormuz get disrupted, Brent could...
If oil shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz get disrupted, experts say Brent could jump into the $80-$100 per barrel range—or even hit $80 if direct strikes occur.
If Iran retaliates symbolically, that's another $3-4 per barrel added.
What do experts say?
BloombergNEF thinks oil might average $55 per barrel in 2026 if things calm down—but BloombergNEF says Brent could reach $91 per barrel in 4Q 2026 under a scenario where Iranian crude is completely removed from markets and that disruption persisted through the rest of 2026;
a complete removal starting in February would instead produce an intermediate estimate of about $71 per barrel in 2Q 2026.
Basically: global events like this can hit your wallet in unexpected ways, so it's worth paying attention to what happens next between these two countries.