IMD predicts below-normal rainfall across southern peninsula in November
What's the story
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that a cyclonic system developing in the Bay of Bengal will likely impact the Andhra Pradesh coast on November 3. The IMD has also said that this system is expected to be weaker than Cyclone Arnab. In its November 2026 outlook, the weather department forecast below-normal rainfall across most parts of India, including southern peninsula regions.
Rainfall forecast
Below-normal rainfall expected in these southern states
The IMD has predicted below-normal rainfall across most parts of the southern peninsula, including Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and south interior Karnataka.
The long-period average rainfall for November in these regions is 118.7mm. However, the department expects rainfall to be below 77% of this average in these areas.
Temperature forecast
Above-normal maximum temperatures likely across most parts of India
The IMD has also predicted above-normal maximum temperatures across most parts of India in November.
However, some areas in northwest India are likely to see normal to below-normal maximum temperatures.
Minimum temperatures are also expected to be above normal across most parts of the country except for some areas in central and eastern India, Maharashtra, and Telangana, where normal to below-normal temperatures are likely.
Weather patterns
Strong El Nino conditions expected to persist until March
The IMD has also predicted strong El Niño conditions to continue over the next two to three months, with its intensity likely peaking in November before gradually weakening.
These conditions are likely to persist through winter and could last until March, although their intensity is expected to decline.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral and is likely to remain so in the coming months.
Previous forecast
Highest maximum temperature recorded in October since 1901
The IMD has reviewed its October outlook and said that its rainfall forecast was largely accurate across most parts of the country.
However, it couldn't predict above-normal rainfall activity over parts of north and south peninsular India due to Cyclone Arnab and associated low-pressure systems.
The department also noted that October 2026 recorded the highest maximum temperature since 1901, with the mean temperature being the third highest.